Is Bitcoin losing its lustre?

8 views 5:27 am 0 Comments January 21, 2024
Bitcoin made a considerable stride this month, one that helped shift it from the fringes of the investment universe closer to becoming a mainstream financial product.

But the digital currency has yet to resolve one key question: will its extreme price volatility stop it from being accepted as a way to hold wealth?

The largest cryptocurrency briefly traded above $US47,000 – its highest level in almost two years – as US regulators finally gave the green light to the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to spot trading. Since then, its price has dropped by over 10 percent in less than a fortnight to about $US41,650.

Will bitcoin ETFs only exacerbate the digital currency’s wild price swings?

Some selling came from investors who saw the subsequent significant development in the crypto world.

Many who purchased bitcoin at a lower price decided to realize their profits and instead plowed their money into other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, the second-largest crypto asset by market capitalization.

They expect the Bitcoin ETF to pave the way for similar funds for other cryptocurrencies, and there are already applications for regulatory ETFs tied to Ethereum.

But it’s likely that Bitcoin’s decline also reflected doubts about how quickly it could shake off its reputation as a fringe asset.

Bitcoin has come a long way since its inventor, Satoshi Nakamoto – whose true identity has never been revealed – wrote a paper in 2008 outlining his vision for a peer-to-peer version of electronic cash that would allow payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.

I don’t believe it’s ever going to be a currency. I believe it’s an asset class.

— Larry Fink, BlackRock

But the cryptocurrency has failed to gain much traction as a payments system because it is expensive and cumbersome, a defect conceded by even its most influential supporters, such as Larry Fink, the US billionaire who runs BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.

“I’m a believer in it because I believe it is an alternative source for wealth holding,” he said in an interview earlier this month.

“I don’t believe it’s ever going to be a currency. I believe it’s an asset class.”

But if bitcoin has no practical utility, what does that mean for its price?

“I believe it goes up if the world is more frightened if people are fearful of geopolitical risk or their own risk,” Fink said. “It’s no different to what gold represented over thousands of years.

“It is an asset class that protects you. But unlike gold, where we manufacture new gold, we’re almost at the ceiling of how much bitcoin can be created.”

However, Fink predicted the blockchain technology that underpins Bitcoin would eventually revolutionize finance.

“I think we’re going to create digital currencies. We’re going to use the technology for it. We’re going to use the blockchain,” he said.

“ETFs are step one in the technological revolution in the financial markets. Step two is going to be the tokenization of every financial asset.”

BlackRock’s application for a bitcoin ETF last June – when it was trading around the $US25,000 level – helped spur a massive rally in the digital currency’s price as investors began to hope that the support of the giant asset manager would help ease regulators’ concerns.

The crypto industry has been pushing for bitcoin ETFs for years, arguing that they would reduce transaction costs, opening the sector to more investors.

Inclusion in portfolios

Bitcoin enthusiasts say the ETFs will clear the way for the digital currency to be included in the $US100 trillion ($151.5 trillion) investment portfolios managed by big institutions, such as banks and super funds.

Even if a tiny fraction of these funds were allocated to Bitcoin, it could substantially increase the digital currency’s price, given that Bitcoin’s total market value is about $US820 billion.

In the first few days of trading last week, spot bitcoin ETFs attracted about $US2 billion; the BlackRock ETF hit the $US1 billion mark in one week.

It will likely take years for big institutional investors and financial advisers to embrace cryptocurrencies – if they do at all.

As a relatively new asset class, cryptocurrency ETFs must undergo rigorous due diligence and compliance reviews before big financial firms allow their advisers to recommend the products to clients.

Moreover, although some of Wall Street’s initial skepticism of cryptocurrency has waned, pockets of hostility remain.

Even the US regulator, the Securities and Exchange Commission, clarified that it begrudged its approval.

Gary Gensler, the SEC chairman, said that although the regulator had approved several spot bitcoin ETFs, “we did not approve or endorse bitcoin.”

Investors, he added, “should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto.”

Meanwhile, index fund giant Vanguard has also indicated that it won’t be offering spot bitcoin ETFs, saying they don’t align with its traditional offerings of shares, bonds, and cash, “which Vanguard views as the building blocks of a well-balanced, long-term investment portfolio.”

‘More like roulette’

And a senior Goldman Sachs executive has warned that digital currencies are still more like roulette rather than an asset that should be held in a retirement savings account.

“If you want to go to Las Vegas, great,” Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, who leads the investment strategy group at Goldman Sachs Private Wealth Management, told The Wall Street Journal.

“People can use it for total speculation, but it is not an investment, and people should not be investing in cryptocurrencies, in bitcoin, in the ETF, as part of an investment portfolio.”

Crypto critics say Bitcoin’s tendency for wilder price swings than other assets makes it an unsuitable financial product to hold wealth.

For instance, as financial markets panicked in the early stages of the global coronavirus pandemic, the price of Bitcoin more than halved from its February 2020 high to its low a month later. During that time, the US blue-chip S&P 500 shed a third of its value, and gold fell 6%.

The critics fear bitcoin ETFs will only exacerbate its price volatility by attracting more money and making it easier and cheaper for speculators to buy and sell the digital currency.

Even some early crypto believers drawn to Nakamoto’s vision of a payments system independent of governments, central banks, and mainstream banks are unhappy with Wall Street’s adoption of digital currency.

They say the big financial institutions are corrupting the original vision that allowed individuals to escape from the state’s power. Instead, they have turned the digital currency into a speculative plaything.

And they’re not too pleased that the new bitcoin ETFs will heavily depend on Wall Street banks and electronic-trading giants to act as “authorized participants,” which help ensure the number of shares expands and contracts align with investor demand.