The Bitcoin price is trading at $42,736 as of 5:00 a.m. EST on Dec. 27, up 0.5% over the last 24 hours.

BTC may have failed to take off in a Santa rally following a dip to $41,600 on Dec. 26, according to data from CoinMarketCap. The fortunes could soon change with on-chain data showing that long-term holders are not only holding onto their Bitcoin, they are also amassing more.

According to data from IntoTheBlocks, an on-chain data and market behavior analysis firm, long-term hodlers are very bullish on the perspectives of a bull run for Bitcoin as they continue to add to their bags.

The Bitcoin hodlers’ balance is an excellent indicator for measuring market cycles. Currently, long-term holders are still accumulating, as they did in previous pre-bull markets.
🔗https://t.co/qWhryCeM0D & pic.twitter.com/fREwfFJziD

— IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) December 27, 2023

Tracking long term holder (hodlers) balances has been a strong indicator of local price tops and bottoms. In every market cycle, there has been clear accumulation of hodlers until near the local price peak, where hodlers beging to sell in large volume to realize gains.

As in previous cycles, this continued continued accumulation is an indication that the big crypto is yet to reach its peak.

At the time of writing, BTC trades 37% below the $69,000 peak reached in Nov. 2021. Where is the price headed in the near term?

Bitcoin Needs to Break $45,000 to Remain Bullish

The BTC price flashed to $45,000 on Dec. 6 but has since dropped 4.5% to the current price  of around $43,000. On Dec. 11, Bitcoin dropped as low as $40,150. The price has been oscillating between these local peak and bottom over the last 20 days.

The Relative Strength Index was still in the positive region with support set at 53. If this oscillating indicator falls below this level, it would mean that the bears are fighting to pull the price lower.

If this happens, Bitcoin could drop to the psychological level at $40,000, embraced by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA). Other levels to watch on the upside are the 100-day EMA at $36,600 and the $35,000 psychological level.

BTC/USD Daily Price

On the upside, the price stength at $53 suggested that the buyers were still stronger than the sellers. The up-facing moving averages were in indication of continued buying among investors.

As such, Bitcoin could rise from the current levels to confront resistance from the $45,000 psychological level. Bulls would have to flip this level into support to secure the uptrend. If they succeed, $50,000 would be the next logical move and a rise toward new all-time highs above $70,000.