The note declared that “Crypto spring has sprung” and reiterated a forecast first made in April when analysts said the leading cryptocurrency would reach the six-figure level by the end of 2024.

Bitcoin has already soared 130% in 2023, and the bullish price outlook represents more than 160% gains.

Continued drivers included bitcoin’s continued dominance of the crypto space and increased token hoarding by miners, Standard Chartered head of FX research Geoff Kendrick wrote. 

He said bitcoin’s share of the digital asset market cap has jumped to around 50% from 45% in April, adding over $10,000 to its price. The bounce has ignited broader interest in the crypto space sooner than anticipated.

“Going forward, then, we expect digital assets’ rising overall market cap to be a bigger driver of BTC price upside than a continued rise in BTC dominance within the space,” Kendrick wrote. 

Meanwhile, sales of mined bitcoin have dropped to around 80% in the fourth quarter, as miners tend to hold larger quantities of the token as its price rises. 

The new supply will also be diminished by next April’s bitcoin halving, a recurring event that reduces the number of tokens awarded for mining. Typically, prices peak 12-18 months after it occurs, Kendrick said.

But a positive surprise is also emerging from the demand side, given the rising likelihood that bitcoin spot ETFs become approved for US markets, he added. 

“We now expect more price upside to materialize before the halving than we previously did, specifically via the earlier-than-expected introduction of US spot ETFs. This suggests a risk that the USD 100,000 level could be reached before the end of 2024,” Kendrick wrote. 

That’s as the SEC’s attempts to block spot ETFs have suffered several court losses. The ETFs would bring fresh capital into Bitcoin, allowing traditional brokerage accounts access. 

Kendrick added that falling Treasury yields can further propel bitcoin since crypto tends to be a very long-term trade. The 30-year yield has dropped to 4.60% from last month’s high of 5.17%.

Standard Chartered’s bullishness was recently joined by analysts at Bernstein, who predicted that Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by mid-2025, given similar supply reasons.