Rekt Capital, a well-regarded Bitcoin analyst, recently shared his insights on the cryptocurrency’s current state and its potential future trajectory. Delving into the historical behavior of Bitcoin about the Pi cycle moving averages, Rekt Capital noted a pattern of oscillation around these averages before the halving events. However, during the halving year, a more pronounced retesting of the moving average often occurs, leading to new all-time highs.
Predictions for the 2024 Halving Year
With the 2024 halving year on the horizon, Rekt Capital outlined possible scenarios for Bitcoin. A key observation is that if Bitcoin approaches the green moving average, historical trends suggest an initial strong rejection. However, a subsequent attempt might lead to a more moderate rejection, potentially culminating in a breakthrough.
Critical Levels for Retests and Resistance
Rekt Capital identified crucial levels for potential retests. On the downside, a retest at the $31,000 mark is consistent with historical support levels. Conversely, the $55,000 mark presents a significant resistance point. However, reaching this level within the year seems unlikely, given the presence of a 4-year cycle resistance near $48,000.
The Pi Cycle Moving Averages and Market Sensitivity
The analyst emphasized the sensitivity of the Pi cycle moving averages, especially the 111-day moving average, which currently shows rapid responses to recent price movements. These sensitive indicators hint at a potential bearish crossover around December 2024. However, market corrections could significantly impact the trajectory of these moving averages, introducing volatility that might shift the expected date for a bearish crossover.
Sharing his personal opinion, Rekt Capital expressed skepticism about a December 2024 peak for the bull market. Instead, he suggested the possibility of a more prolonged bull market extending into 2025. This extension could feature multiple crossovers, influenced by market dynamics, corrections, and evolving trends. At the time of this report, Bitcoin is trading at around $44,000, marking an increase of over three percent.