Many people are sceptical of technical analysis and the reason is that in an efficient market, the price action should be random and therefore the transit of prices in a chart should hold no past hints to the future. There are counterarguments to this, but the one for crypto is simple: crypto markets are not random because they are too new to be perfectly random.

Impending Halving Could Take Bitcoin to $120K

In Bitcoin USD’s (BTC-USD) case, the impending ‘Halving’ (sometimes referred to as halvening) on previous performance – which should be no guide to the future performance – could take Bitcoin to $120,000. Being an old scaredy-cat with burnt-off nerve endings myself, I’ll likely leave the game at $80,000. However, anyone looking to guess what’s next for Bitcoin would be assuming this fractal progression. I’m leaving this crude, so everyone can see it’s a projection, and see its start point.

This is the very least of what Bitcoin Maxis expects. On the face of it, this is ridiculous to predict, however, this is exactly what I projected in 2017 and 2021 and what came to pass. This, of course, doesn’t mean it’s a shoo-in, but it is a solid road map to follow or cling onto as a holder. To me, the market feels different from the last two runs, so any holder needs a plan and the plan needs a map. This is mine.

Bitcoin looks to be making a classic break out as the halving on the 19th of April approaches, so it isn’t genius to suggest that the market should adjust to this bullish time horizon and start to rally.

Here is the chart of that apparent breakout:

The next stop if the break becomes vertical is $60,000, a simple hop for explosive Bitcoin. While this sort of price movement might seem wild, it is nothing for a volatile instrument like Bitcoin, and to put it into context, if a Nasdaq stock were to rise from $470 to $600 it wouldn’t cause much of a stir. Likewise, if you scaled the performance of Meta over the last 18 months, a Bitcoin rise to $120,000 doesn’t seem outlandish at all.

Here is a little fractal analysis that suggests $60,000 is on the way next.

At $47500, the only thing to see was if the run could get some more air above the previous recent high because if you want to be cautious it does no harm to wait for further confirmation. That ‘air’ and the confirmation of a breakout is now in place.

I have written over and over that the way to play Bitcoin is to ‘dollar cost average’ (DCA) and that is still the way to go. Jumping into Bitcoin boots first now would just be FOMO, and FOMO is lethal in any market. DCA smooths out the emotional highs and lows of building a position and avoids the whiplash that can make a holder bail on a perfectly good position because the stakes get too frightening too fast.

DCA is the modus operandi for crypto in general because it is better to live to fight another day than fight to live another day. These potential fat rewards are balanced by ultra-high risk.

When I began writing this article, Bitcoin was $47500 it is now over $51000; for anybody the least bit bullish on crypto, the next cycle boom bubble has begun.